Finnish Elections goes Red-Hot Exciting!
I have looked at the latest polls prior to Sunday parliamentary election and tried to analyse it.
Finland is heading for Parliamentary elections and on Monday we will all wake up to a new political reality in our small frost-bitten country. Many of the headlines today are results of extended debates on climate and a conflict between frustrated citizens in rural Finland and a radicalized urban wave that strongly has shaped the debate. Heavy issues like wellfare- healthcare and administrative reforms has kept this Parliament divided. Into these frames fits quite a lot of the relevant topics for this election.
The Socialdemocratic (SDP) party holds a firm lead while the National Conservative party (PS) has made a remarkable comeback since the party split two years ago and has risen to second largest party. The Green party has had good flow in the polls but it now looks as a comfortable place for the Greens in the next government has been challenged with decreased popularity.
The forming of a new government in Finland looks to be difficult. The Socialdemocrats has good chance to lead the forming of a new government – but who will fit in to it?
The Greens (Vihreät) has very efficiently reached out to the SDP and consensus in environmental and economical questions seems to be for real even prior to the election.
But looking at the latest polls forming of a red-green government will be very difficult.
SDP and the greens has in latest polls dropped and now reaches together 31,2% no where close to a majority for a government. Rinne will probably not dare to form a government with the nationalistic PS and will have to seek consensus with Kokoomus or Keskusta. But taking one of them on board will at most give him 47,1 and then he need one more small party on board.
The left will be a tough cookie for Kokoomus who then will be the only Right wing party in a Heavy left-wing government. Swedish Liberals (SFP) or KD would probably get this coalition over the 50% line but with smallest possible margin. Far from an ideal situation. SDP Chairman Rinne has also said he want a government with as few parties in it as possible, but pampering the Greens could force him to work in a new “Six-pack-government”
Then Keskusta, but if the party doesn´t improve it´s popularity in the election, will they be prepared to remain in government? Perhaps under a new leadership, but it is far from likely that our PM Juha Sipilä will start those kind of negotiations with SDP and the a strong Red-Green counterpart.
But what says that Keskusta and Kokoomus both couldn’t form a government together with SDP? They would almost reach 50% and they would probably find common ground for a common policy on reforms and economics. With one small party that they all could accept the government would be wide enough for over 50%. Having a strong Nationalistic party as second largest party in Parliament, a coalition between the tree, old big parties would seem as a responsible thing to do.
Personally I believe that SDP – Kokoomus – Keskusta will constitute over 50% in the next Parliament. And I believe that SFP has good possibilities to be the brick that gives the next government comfortable majority in Parliament.
My first guess for next government would be SDP + Kokoomus + Green + SFP.